No false modesty here. Late acting on my post!

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I prefer the explanation that the lads just took some time to act on my post of yesterday.

Anyway there was another modest collect with $82 jumping in which at least put me modestly in front on my interest rate predictions.

The all-time profit on all predictions now stands at $1252.49. (See The portfolio - the record so far for full details).

So far this calendar year we have had a turnover of $700 for a profit of $542).

This blog, as well as being a bit of fun, does have the serious purpose of letting people check my record as a political pundit. I note that not many of me peers are game to keep a score sheet.

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A little wager on no interest rate change

The retail sales figures from the ABS this morning were stronger than most pundits thought likely, rising 0.7 per cent in February following a strong gain in January. That's enough to persuade me that the market has it wrong in leaning towards a cut in official interest rates this afternoon. Here's the Betfair market as at 12.30pm

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The 2.64 looks value to me. A suggested 50 units.

Backing Labour's Millliband to become UK Prime Minister

The opinion polls have the UK election at level pegging. The market has the Conservatives at $1.51 to win the most seats. On Betfair David Cameron is $1.75 to continue as Prime Minister after the election with Labour' Ed Milliband at $2.34. To me those odds just don't make sense.
Here is how The Guardian assesses what the current polls would produce:

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Sure the Conservatives by that calculation should be a narrow favourite on the most seats market. But Cameron favourite to continue as PM?
Here is how The Independent assessed things this morning:

Because Labour-held constituencies are smaller than Conservative ones, it is easier for Labour to win most seats. Even though Labour continues to be at risk of heavy losses in Scotland, our latest seat projection puts the party on 293 seats, eighteen ahead of the Conservatives on 275.
With Nick Clegg projected to secure just 16 seats, the Prime Minister would be left with too few allies to be able to sustain a government. The 48 MPs that might be won by the SNP together with their Welsh and Green allies would be able to carry out their threat to block Mr Cameron’s path back to power.

Yet this how the Betfair markets have moved.

Winner of most seats

PM after next election

I already have had a couple of investments on Labour to win the most seats (see Details HERE). But to me the most likely result is a hung parliament and that the Scottish National Party will end up giving the initial nod to Ed Milliband. Hence my 100 unit investment on him at the $2.34.