Lib-Dems win - another modest earn

The Eastleigh by-election went the way the market suggested it would resulting in a modest $31 profit for the political speculator.

The record so far:

Total outlay on concluded events $1,942.6 for winnings of $461.5

Current bets outstanding total $804 leaving a cash balance available of $657.50

Full details of all bets are on the portfolio page.

Eastleigh - Backing the Lib-Dems

I'm betting that the attack on the Conservatives from the anti-Europe flank of UKIP will prove a bigger influence on the by-election today for the House of Commons seat of Eastleigh than the personal relations problems of a pair of Liberal Democrats.
100 units invested on the Lib-Dems at an average of 1.31
Eastleigh - Winner bet | UK Politics odds | betfair.com:

'via Blog this'

Backing UK Labour again

Today's UK opinion polls confirm the dismal prospect confronting the Conservative-Liberal Democrat government.

With the coalition refusing to change its policy of fiscal austerity I can not imagine the circumstances under which they could win the next election.
I have once again backed Labour to be the party with the most members after the next election.

100 Labour at 1.66

Some form on the early Papal favourite

Pope's successor: Ghana prays for Peter Turkson the miner's son to reach marbled halls - Telegraph:

"Cardinal Peter Turkson, born in a two-room shack 170 miles from Ghana's capital, is currently the bookmakers' favourite to become the next pope. If selected, it would make him the first African pope in modern times. And it is something that his family and friends in Nsuta-Wassa, a small mining settlement set amid rolling hills and lush forest in western Ghana, are struggling to believe.
"It is quite incredible that someone from here could become pope," said Dunhill Pawosey, 62, a life-long friend of Cardinal Turkson. "But we have total faith in him, and know he will do an excellent job. It is very exciting for us all.""

'via Blog this'

Best current price 4.33 at Stan James

Gillard drifts back to even money to remain Labor leader

The first weeks of this current parliamentary session have frightened the punters when it comes to Julia Gillard. She started the year rated an 80% chance of remaining the Labor Leader until the election. On Betfair this afternoon she was back out to $2 - a 50% chance.

All over red rover - backing the Coalition

I have been hesitating for months to put my money where my words are. For over a year now I have thought this next Australian federal election is as good as over and that Labor will be beaten but have not risked my own hard earned. No longer. The time has come to take the $1.21 on offer at Betfair about the Coalition.
$200 invested to potentially win $42.
The major risk I can see is that the Labor Caucus realises the futility of its position and replaces Julia Gillard with Kevin Rudd. As insurance against that I'll take $14 on the $15.0 about Rudd becoming the next Prime Minister. That will save my $200 stake.
Details of all my current political bets are at My portfolio