Presidential market tracking strongly in the Obama direction

A month and a tick to go and the market is moving strongly in Barack Obama's direction.
These are the three main markets I look at:and all have the Democrats around the 80% probability mark..

'Unskewing' polls with party ID is, statistically speaking, bunk

A further note on those American opinion polls.

'Unskewing' polls with party ID is, statistically speaking, bunk | Harry J Enten | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk:

The idea that current polling is 'too Democratic' and needs re-weighting for party identification simply doesn't pass muster.

"The mainstream media is skewing its polls with too many Democratsbecause they want Obama to win."
Statements like this one are zipping around the internet a mile a minute these days. The general idea is that there are too many respondents identifying as Democrats in public surveys compared to past elections' exit polls. There's even a website titled unskewedpolls.com that purports to adjust media polls to correct for these errors, based on Rasmussen Reports data. 

'via Blog this'

Obama keeps getting shorter

Since my last suggestion to back Obama to become president the market has moved steadily in his favour. Intrade now has him as a 75% chance of winning.
The way the latest opinion polls are that still represents value.

Tempted to back Obama yet again but ...

If it wasn't for the cautionary words years ago of the most successful professional punter I know that I always have a tendency to "overbet", I'd be having more on Barack Obama to win this presidential election. To me he is looking more and more like a good thing every day but I do have a considerable proportion of my portfolio on him already. I've got to continually remind myself not to be foolhardy so I'm letting the current 68% or so available from Intrade pass but if you have not already invested on the event now is the time to do so.
To the evidence for my increasing belief.
First up, the piece headlined "The Romney campaign is in trouble" posted on the Washington Post website on Monday by the always interesting Ezra Klein.

There are two sure signs a campaign is in trouble. The first is that it begins changing its strategy rapidly and erratically. The second is that it begins attacking its strategists fiercely and anonymously.The Romney campaign is in trouble.First came the changes in strategy. It went from doing everything possible to assure a “referendum” election to picking Paul Ryan as the vice presidential nominee and going for a choice election. It went from focusing relentlessly on the economy to cycling among welfare, Medicare and Libya. The latest ad is about manufacturing jobs in China.Now we’re hearing the calls for a change in strategists. On Sunday night, Politico published a 2,700-word piece mostly dedicated to giving “Romney aides, advisers and friends” space to knife Stuart Stevens, Mitt Romney’s top strategist. 

Then there's this judgment from The Daily Beast:

It looks more and more like a dispirited and disappointed collection of factions, preparing to lay blame for a lost presidential election and to do battle to shape a new direction for the Grand Old Party.Last week the view hardened that the Republican nominee was in close to terminal trouble. Having lost the summer as he let the Obama campaign define him, having lost the conventions when he let Clint Eastwood step all over his acceptance speech, Mitt Romney spectacularly lost his head on Sept. 11 during the mob attack on U.S. diplomats in Egypt and Libya. He came across as a low-life opportunist rushing to exploit a national tragedy in order to score political points and then doubling down on this venal dumbness with a smirking and contentious press conference. This week he may well have finished the job, with a video leaking of him referring to 47 percent of the electorate as government moochers.Romney’s advisers have taken to bashing the press for covering the bad news, a near-certain sign of a losing campaign, as is the simultaneous effort to quarrel with the methodology of polls showing him trailing in the battleground states with almost no way of reaching 270 electoral votes. 

He who hesitates ...

My instincts were right last week when I wrote that "the momentum seems to be in Julia Gillard's favour at the moment for her to lead Labor at the next election." She has since moved on the Crikey Indicator from being a 52% chance of still being in the job come election day to a 57% chance. 

A small earning opportunity missed but there will be others especially if the press gallery pundits continue to predict that if there is no push this year to put Kevin Rudd back in the job that it is all over red rover.The currently conventional wisdom is just nonsense as those of us old enough to remember the events of 1983 well recognise.
There are still swings and roundabouts to go in this Labor leadership contest.

The ground swell for Kevin disappearing?

I'm not prepared to risk my own money yet but the momentum seems to be in Julia Gillard's favour at the moment for her to lead Labo at the next election.
The political speculator's diary:

The betting record so far

A modest profit so far.
Total outlay on concluded events $1,167.40 for winnings of $315.70
Current bets outstanding total $936.80 leaving a cash balance available of $378.90
You will find details of all wagers at the portfolio page.

Backing Obama

If the consensus of the pollsters is anywhere near right then Barack Obama should be a very short priced favourite to remain president of the United States. The Real Clear Politics average of all the current poll polls has him 3.5 points clear of Mitt Romney with Gallup putting the lead at a massive seven points.
On my rough calculation that would make him a better than 80% chance yet while Obama has been shortening on the Crikey Presidential Election Indicator in the last few days the market is providing much better value than that.

It's time, methinks, to open the wallet and risk a little of my own hard earned.
I've taken the 63.7% available at Intrade.
For anyone interested you will find a record of my little political bets on my web The Political Speculator.