Justin Welby: Those who bet on me should donate winnings

BBC News - Justin Welby: Those who bet on me should donate winnings: "The next Archbishop of Canterbury has suggested people who made money by correctly betting on his appointment should donate their winnings to parish churches.

The Rt Rev Justin Welby made the call on the social networking site, Twitter.

Ladbrokes, which suspended betting after a flurry of bets placed on Bishop Welby's name, has now said it will donate £1,000 to Canterbury Cathedral.

The bishop was named as the next head of the Church of England on Friday."



'via Blog this'

When the bookies didn’t have a prayer - Telegraph

When the bookies didn’t have a prayer - Telegraph: "'And, lo, the Son of Man did again walk upon the earth, as it was foretold. And on the first day after He was risen, He did go to the temple of chance, and said unto them, 'Verily, I ask of you this. Can I have a monkey on Justin Welby for the Canterbury Stakes at 13-8?’ ” (Pseudo-Apocrypha 2:12-13)."



'via Blog this'

When it comes to the punt is nothing sacred?

The British bookies have stopped betting on who will be the next Archbishop of Canterbury after a solid plunge on one candidate led them to conclude they were becoming victims of insider trading.

The BBC reports that Ladbrokes closed betting after reporting a "very significant move" in favour of the current Bishop of Durham, Justin Welby. William Hill followed suit saying it had cut the odds on Bishop Welby three times in an hour.

A panel has been considering who will replace Rowan Williams for months with the choice currently before the Crown Nominations Commission.

Before the flurry of betting activity Bishop Welby was the 13/8 second favourite.When the bookies called enough he was an odds on 4/6.

A modest 40% return for the year

A modest little earn on the US Presidential election has more than compensated for getting wrong the likely economic conditions at the end of the year in the United States.

After a year of operation, the portfolio is now showing a total profit of $384.80 on its $1000 bank. Not sensational but I've been taking a very prudent approach and the outstanding wagers on Australian politics must show an eventual profit of $20 (and maybe a little more) whatever happens. Let's call the total return $400. That's certainly better than my partner's superannuation fund has been doing.
Of the other outstanding bets, Bashad-al-Assad still being president of Syria at the end of the year has moved in the right direction. I took the 54.3% some months ago that he would not be removed and it is in to 19% tonight.
The $100 on Labour at $2.26 to be the biggest party after the next British election is looking okay as well. The latest Betfair quote is $1.86.
Full details of present and past bets are HERE.

Money for nothing

Here's the item I wrote for the crikey.com.au website (the one that pays to keep me eating) this morning:

A cup day bet that cannot lose. It is a punter’s dream bet — back all the runners and win whatever wins. And as I write this at 11.30am on Melbourne Cup Day you can still guarantee yourself a profit on the US presidential election. All you need is an account with Betfair in Australia and Intrade in Ireland and you can wager on both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and win. Invest $91.40 and you’ll get back $100.
Here’s a summary of the markets on the three betting exchanges I combine to create the Crikey Presidential Indicator:

When the percentage chances add up to less than 100 you can back both runners and win and by combining Intrade and Betfair prices that’s exactly the case. So go to it. Being a sporting fellow I’ll leave the profit to my readers.
And a note for those not skilled in these gambling ways you will find that Betfair provides information as a price like in a tote dividend. To convert it to a percentage divide 1 by the price (eg. this morning you could back Romney on Betfair at $4.40 - 1/4.40 = 22.7).
The verdict of the Crikey Indicator. There’s no doubt in my mind that this wonderful arbitrage opportunity comes about because of a weird desire among Republicans to have their man Romney appear as a winner. The publication by Real Clear Politics of the latest Intrade prices showing Obama as a clear favourite clearly annoyed some people with money to spare. For what was a small outlay compared with the $6 billion being spent on this US election campaign they kept the Obama advantage from seeming too great.
On the other exchanges manipulation is not as easy. The Betfair market is used by the world’s major bookmakers as well as ordinary punters and thus a much greater outlay would be needed to affect it. And the Iowa Electronic Market limits the amounts that any individual participant can play with. More importantly neither of these two has its prices published by Real Clear Politics.
And so to the final indicator before tonight’s voting.

Even after giving the Intrade market a one third weighting it shows Obama as the likely winner.

 Since then the markets have changed slightly. Intrade has moved from 68.7% to 70% for Obama but Romney has gone from $4.40 to $4.70. The guaranteed profit has increased. Hence two investments that use up my available cash:

• $280 on Obama to win at 70% on Intrade for a potential return of $400
• $77 on Romney at $4.70 on Betfair for a potential return of $361.90

Only a small return on an outlay of $355 but criminal not to take it when there is no risk at all. A $45 profit if Obama wins and a profit of $6.90 if Romney does.

Presidential market tracking strongly in the Obama direction

A month and a tick to go and the market is moving strongly in Barack Obama's direction.
These are the three main markets I look at:and all have the Democrats around the 80% probability mark..

'Unskewing' polls with party ID is, statistically speaking, bunk

A further note on those American opinion polls.

'Unskewing' polls with party ID is, statistically speaking, bunk | Harry J Enten | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk:

The idea that current polling is 'too Democratic' and needs re-weighting for party identification simply doesn't pass muster.

"The mainstream media is skewing its polls with too many Democratsbecause they want Obama to win."
Statements like this one are zipping around the internet a mile a minute these days. The general idea is that there are too many respondents identifying as Democrats in public surveys compared to past elections' exit polls. There's even a website titled unskewedpolls.com that purports to adjust media polls to correct for these errors, based on Rasmussen Reports data. 

'via Blog this'

Obama keeps getting shorter

Since my last suggestion to back Obama to become president the market has moved steadily in his favour. Intrade now has him as a 75% chance of winning.
The way the latest opinion polls are that still represents value.

Tempted to back Obama yet again but ...

If it wasn't for the cautionary words years ago of the most successful professional punter I know that I always have a tendency to "overbet", I'd be having more on Barack Obama to win this presidential election. To me he is looking more and more like a good thing every day but I do have a considerable proportion of my portfolio on him already. I've got to continually remind myself not to be foolhardy so I'm letting the current 68% or so available from Intrade pass but if you have not already invested on the event now is the time to do so.
To the evidence for my increasing belief.
First up, the piece headlined "The Romney campaign is in trouble" posted on the Washington Post website on Monday by the always interesting Ezra Klein.

There are two sure signs a campaign is in trouble. The first is that it begins changing its strategy rapidly and erratically. The second is that it begins attacking its strategists fiercely and anonymously.The Romney campaign is in trouble.First came the changes in strategy. It went from doing everything possible to assure a “referendum” election to picking Paul Ryan as the vice presidential nominee and going for a choice election. It went from focusing relentlessly on the economy to cycling among welfare, Medicare and Libya. The latest ad is about manufacturing jobs in China.Now we’re hearing the calls for a change in strategists. On Sunday night, Politico published a 2,700-word piece mostly dedicated to giving “Romney aides, advisers and friends” space to knife Stuart Stevens, Mitt Romney’s top strategist. 

Then there's this judgment from The Daily Beast:

It looks more and more like a dispirited and disappointed collection of factions, preparing to lay blame for a lost presidential election and to do battle to shape a new direction for the Grand Old Party.Last week the view hardened that the Republican nominee was in close to terminal trouble. Having lost the summer as he let the Obama campaign define him, having lost the conventions when he let Clint Eastwood step all over his acceptance speech, Mitt Romney spectacularly lost his head on Sept. 11 during the mob attack on U.S. diplomats in Egypt and Libya. He came across as a low-life opportunist rushing to exploit a national tragedy in order to score political points and then doubling down on this venal dumbness with a smirking and contentious press conference. This week he may well have finished the job, with a video leaking of him referring to 47 percent of the electorate as government moochers.Romney’s advisers have taken to bashing the press for covering the bad news, a near-certain sign of a losing campaign, as is the simultaneous effort to quarrel with the methodology of polls showing him trailing in the battleground states with almost no way of reaching 270 electoral votes. 

He who hesitates ...

My instincts were right last week when I wrote that "the momentum seems to be in Julia Gillard's favour at the moment for her to lead Labor at the next election." She has since moved on the Crikey Indicator from being a 52% chance of still being in the job come election day to a 57% chance. 

A small earning opportunity missed but there will be others especially if the press gallery pundits continue to predict that if there is no push this year to put Kevin Rudd back in the job that it is all over red rover.The currently conventional wisdom is just nonsense as those of us old enough to remember the events of 1983 well recognise.
There are still swings and roundabouts to go in this Labor leadership contest.

The ground swell for Kevin disappearing?

I'm not prepared to risk my own money yet but the momentum seems to be in Julia Gillard's favour at the moment for her to lead Labo at the next election.
The political speculator's diary:

The betting record so far

A modest profit so far.
Total outlay on concluded events $1,167.40 for winnings of $315.70
Current bets outstanding total $936.80 leaving a cash balance available of $378.90
You will find details of all wagers at the portfolio page.

Backing Obama

If the consensus of the pollsters is anywhere near right then Barack Obama should be a very short priced favourite to remain president of the United States. The Real Clear Politics average of all the current poll polls has him 3.5 points clear of Mitt Romney with Gallup putting the lead at a massive seven points.
On my rough calculation that would make him a better than 80% chance yet while Obama has been shortening on the Crikey Presidential Election Indicator in the last few days the market is providing much better value than that.

It's time, methinks, to open the wallet and risk a little of my own hard earned.
I've taken the 63.7% available at Intrade.
For anyone interested you will find a record of my little political bets on my web The Political Speculator.

A Syrian tip from Robert Fisk

The United Nations has finally admitted its impotence in the affairs of Syria by withdrawing its military observers so information about what is actually happening in that country's civil war will now be even less. Perhaps the closest we outsiders can get to a form guide is the view of that veteran reporter on the Middle East Robert Fisk.
In The Independent on Sunday this morning Fisk writes:

That view seems to make sense and encourages me to again back the dictator - in this case that Bashar-Al-Assad will still be president of Syria at the end of the year.

Invested $54.30 for a potential win of $45.70.

The punting record so far - an update

As at 9 May 2012 the portfolio is showing a profit since starting in mid November of $236.90 on its $1000 bank. 
There is another $69 of profit to come when the selection of Mitt Romney as the Republican  candidate becomes official.
Full details of these and other bets are here.

Going for a reduction again

The low producer price index figures from the ABS this morning have encouraged me to venture again into the Reserve Bank official interest rate market. Have moved ahead of tomorrow's consumer price index release to suggest $50 at Betfair's $1.34

Backing no interest rate change

 The expected speculation about an interest rate cut is underway as expected before the Australian Reserve Bank Board meeting on the first Tuesday of every month. One bank pundit on Friday put the odds of a 0.25 percentage point cut at 50:50 but traders have a vested interest in promoting a contest as exciting.

That 50:50 split seems a bit high to me. I expect the Reserve Bank will do the prudent thing and wait until it sees that the federal government actually delivers its promised tough budget before making a decision.

And the Crikey Interest Rate Indicator agrees.

I recommend taking some of the $1.54 available on Betfair about there being no change.

Angela Merkel gives a French election tip

I notice that the German Chancellor Angela Merkel has changed her tune about actively backing Nicolas Sarkozy in the contest for the French presidency. She is now offering to meet with the socialist candidate Francois Holland as it becomes more likely that Sarkozy is on the way to being rejected.
While recent opinion polls show that President Sarkozy now has a narrow lead when first round voting intentions are measured, he still lags well behind after minor candidates are eliminated. And as the figures from TNS Sofres show, the latest drop in first round support for Hollande is less than the increase shown for Jean Luc Melanchon whose party is further to the left than the mainstream socialists.

(Click graphs to enlarge)

I have already invested $64.50 on Sarkozy not to win (see the details of this and other current wagers in the portfolio here) and I recommend going again at the Intrade price this morning of 60.5%

Value in Campbell Newman

Playing the man just isn't working for Queensland Labor. This morning's Galaxy poll in the Brisbane Sunday Mail suggests, as the paper puts it, Labor Faces Disaster.

With six days to go I cannot imagine how Anna Bligh can rescue things from here.
The $1.06 the bookies are offering about the Liberal National Party are probably generous but there is far better value in Sportingbet's $1.45 about Campbell Newman winning the seat of Ashgrove. The anti-Labor swing is shaping up as so large that even an excellent campaign by the sitting Labor member will not be enough.
Saturday's Newspoll looks pretty accurate to me.

On the basis of a 52 to 48 split in the two party preferred vote, anything better than $1.33 about Campbell Newman is value.
I have taken the $1.45 - see the current portfolio of this and other wagers - including the $40 I optimistically put on Labor some months back to actually win the election! Silly me.

A little more Santorum

Candidate Rick Santorum continues to surprise. Wins, albeit narrow ones, in Alabama and Mississippi today keep the Republican race alive.
Yet the market does not seem to really believe it and he's still only given a 6.8% chance on Intrade with Mitt Romney assessed at 85%. The whole market comes in at less than 100% which presents a rare opportunity
That looks value enough to risk another $6.80 on Santorum to go with my earlier investment of $10 at a bookies price of $27 (3.7%).
I already have $50 on Romney at $2 (50%) so my biggest risk on this event is probably someone completely new emerging from a hung convention. Hence the decision to have $1.50 on Jeb Bush at 1.5% as my outsider insurance policy.

Sarkozy narrows the gap a little in French presidential race

A poll for Europe 1 and Paris Match published today has France's President Nicolas Sarkozy gaining some ground in his reelection bid but still trailing Socialist candidate Francois Hollande in the likely second round of voting after the elimination of other candidates.

The Crikey French Election Indicator, based on prices at the prediction markets, assesses the chances at:

Earlier this year the Owl backed Sarkozy not to win at 35.5% so there is currently a theoretical profit of 13 points or so..

Santorum scores easy win at Kansas caucuses | Reuters

The result went as expected by the Indicator.

Santorum scores easy win at Kansas caucuses | Reuters: "Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum swept the Kansas caucuses on Saturday with 51 percent of the vote, giving him a boost going into crucial primary votes in the South next week.

The conservative former senator from Pennsylvania was well ahead of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who was at 21 percent, and former House of Representative Speaker Newt Gingrich at 14 percent.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul had 12 percent.

Santorum now has some bragging rights before the more contested races next week in Alabama and Mississippi, where victories could solidify his status as the conservative alternative to front-runner Romney."

'via Blog this'

The next batch of Republican selections

The Crikey Republican Election Indicators are pointing to another set of mixed results in the forthcoming primaries and caucuses.

The Whitehall efficiency drive that increased costs - Telegraph

The Whitehall efficiency drive that increased costs - Telegraph: "Whitehall departments have spent £1.4 billion in an attempt to save £159  million by sharing “back-office’’ functions such as personnel and procurement.
Private sector firms typically cut a fifth off their annual spend within five years using similar methods, the National Audit Office said.
But a combination of poor coordination, over-expensive IT systems, weak or non-existent sanctions and an insistence on highly-tailored services saw public sector costs rise instead."

'via Blog this'

This week's Republican contests

Australia’s Labor is not the only political party that will be struggling to find a fresh face to become its leader as the year goes on. The US Republicans appear to have the same problem. At the end of the first two months of the selection process for a presidential candidate there is not yet a clear cut leader.
Reservations exist within the Republican ranks about all four of those currently in the race. As measured by the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, President Barack Obama has clear leads in hypothetical contests with Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. Candidate Rick Santorum is given a narrow lead but his social conservatism has not yet been exposed to the kind of criticism that Democrats would surely mount. Already there is talk of none of the four obtaining a majority of votes before the nominating convention which would leave the way open for the selection of someone else.
Perhaps the next round of primaries and caucuses will provide a clearer guide. Later today there will be polls in Arizona and Michigan with the Crikey Republican Election Indicators predicting the following:

Because it is Romney's home state - and if you cannot win at home you might as well retire from the contest - I have ventured $68.70 on Romney to win in Michigan for a potential win of $31.30.

Takng the odds on about Romney

I know I've expressed some reservations about Mitt Romney but if the man deserves to be an 80% chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination then he would surely have to get the majority support from the Maine state caucus.
The north east is meant to be his strong area so I recommend taking the 69.7% available on Intrade.

A Republican race again

Contests in three states and three victories for Rick Santorum. There is a fair dinkum race again for the Republican presidential nomination.

At least I didn't fall in to taking the short prices on offer in Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado about Mitt Romney winning. I ended up following my own advice from 31 January when I drew attention to the national surveys of the opinion pollsters that had him second to Newt Gingrich and not all that far in front of candidate Santorum. I wrote: "The lack of enthusiasm for Romney makes me hesitate about taking the short prices on offer in these upcoming events"

Having reached the conclusion that the modest investment on Santorum back at the end of December at $27 (3.7% in Intrade terms) was money wasted I am now in the position where I can make a profit! He's 12.1% tonight.
 

The Bank Board beats me

You win some and you lose some. Today the Reserve Bank Board beat me by keeping interest rates unchanged.
Just a reminder that 71% chances don't win 100% of the time.
That's the way of it and they'll go round again on the first Tuesday of next month.
The result has brought the overall returns back to a more realistic level.
See the details here.

Another reason to take a little Obama wager

From this morning's LA Times:

Click to enlarge

Time to back the Democrats for the US presidential election

At the recent rate of job creation in the United States it will be 2019 or so before the unemployment rate in the United States is back to where it was before the international financial crisis but at least the latest figures suggest that things are getting better rather than worse. Which has to be good news for the re-election chances of Barack Obama.
Good enough for me to recommend taking the current offerings at Intrade
The best offering by the British bookies is $1.67 about the Democrats which is equivalent to 59.9% on Intrade where there was a little 56.5% available when I last looked and a reasonable quantity at 57.0%

Romney really does have something to sing about

A modest little win for me today with Mitt Romney winning the Florida primary.
The man now does have something to sing about

.

A Mitt Romney Anomaly

For all the caucuses and primaries to be held over the next month, Mitt Romney is an odds on favourite. He is very short as well in the market to be the eventual Republican candidate. Yet the opinion pollsters in their surveys of Republican voters have him as the second choice behind Newt Gingrich.

(The polls figures are taken from the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls.)

The lack of enthusiasm for Romney makes me hesitate about taking the short prices on offer in these upcoming events although I have backed him to win today's (Tuesday's) Florida primary.

Interest rate cut odds shortening

So far so good on the interest rate front. I recommended taking the $1.70 about a 0.25 point fall in the official rate when the Reserve Bank Board next meets and it is in to $1.37 tonight.

I'm happy to let it ride all the way to Tuesday's meeting.

The interest rate decision indicator which converts the market to 100 per cent looks like this:

Trouble at London Labour's mill

A few tensions apparently within those working on the Ken Livingstone campaign to become London's Mayor. It all reads like pretty petty stuff to me but it's been enough to start pushing the Labour candidate's price out again. Out to $2.66 on Betfair after coming in to $240 after opinion polls put him in front.
Having missed the $3.85 (see my lament here) I'll keep waiting for a while longer yet.

A volatile Florida Republican primary market

Well it looks like Mitt Romney will start a short priced favourite to win the Republican Florida primary but it has been an up and down ride to get there.

The fluctuations on Intrade over the last month

Waiting too long to bet on London's mayoral race?

I pondered back on 9 January having a bet on the Labour candidate to defeat the Tory Lord Mayor of London. Labour's Ken Livingstone back then was a $3.85 chance on Betfair. Tonight he is in to $2.40.

The reason is a couple of opinion polls showing Livingstone is now leading the incumbent Boris Johnson.

Having missed the price, even though my logic has so far proved correct, I'll keep waiting.

Coming down to earth

Well there went the 100% record! Taking Mitt Romney as a 70% chance to win in South Carolina turned out to be the wrong way to go. Clearly I moved too soon. By the time the voting started Newt Gingrich, the clear winner, was also the clear favourite as the Crikey Election Indicator showed:.

I've taken the wrong price about Florida too (Romney as an 82% chance). At the moment he is rated at 42% with Gingrich the new favourite.

We will see.

Santorum won January 3 Iowa presidential caucuses | Reuters

From Reuters:

Former Senator Rick Santorum won the January 3 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses by a razor-thin margin of 34 votes, according to certified results released on Thursday by the Iowa Republican Party.Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney had been declared the winner on the night of the caucuses, but now falls to second place.

Luckily I got paid on the early count!

'via Blog this'

World Bank's interest rate signal

I know it's just another forecast and economic forecasts invariably are wrong. But the World's Banks warning today of a world in danger of another recession is sure to be factored in by the Australian Reserve Bank board when it meets on the first Tuesday of next month. Like most of the other evidence the World bank is pointing towards countries needing to stimulate activity rather than curb it. Hence my modest little punt on an interest rate decline of 0.15 percentage points.
Details of all current wagers are here.

Romney Has 23-Point GOP Lead Nationally

From Gallup: Mitt Romney has climbed to a commanding 23-point lead over his nearest competitor among Republican registered voters nationally, based on interviewing conducted Jan. 11-15. Romney has 37% of the support of Republicans nationwide, while Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich each have 14%, and Ron Paul has 12%. History suggests that Romney is now the probable favorite to win the Republican nomination.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152060/Romney-Point-GOP-Lead-Nationally.aspx

'via Blog this'

Romney opens 21-point lead in South Carolina: Reuters/Ipsos poll | Reuters

Further evidence that the race for the Republican nomination is close to being over.

From Reuters: "Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has opened a wide lead over his rivals in the South Carolina primary election race, trouncing Newt Gingrich and gaining momentum in his march toward the party's nomination, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, could all but quash his rivals' presidential aspirations with a victory in South Carolina on January 21 after winning the first state-by-state nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire."

'via Blog this'

So far so good in the political profit stakes

This little experiment of putting my political judgment on the record has panned out alright so far.
On concluded events the suggested outlay of $390 has resulted in winnings of $197.30 since starting in mid-November.
Not that such a good record is likely to continue. It looks like there are some losses on the way.
The current portfolio can be found here.

Betting against President Sarkozy in France

Some strong showings in recent opinion polls by the French far-right National Front suggest that Nicolas Sarkozy is far from a certainty to make the final run-off election for the French presidency.
The Ifop-Fiducial survey taken between 9 and 12 January showed the Front's Marie Le Pen within two percentage points of Sarkozy with both behind the Socialist candidate Francois Hollande in the predicted first round of voting.

In its measurement of a likely second round contest between Sarkkozy and Hollande the lead for the Socialist challenger over the incumbent was a considerable 14 points.

Given that Sarkozy has to pull off the double of coming either first or second in the first round of polling and then win the run-off laying him at the 35.5% assessment on Intrade looks good value to me and I'll be taking some of it.

Tempted to bet on a race for London's mayor

London's mayoral election has me interested. I can't help thinking that the defeat of Labour's Ken Livingstone back in 2008 by the Conservative candidate Boris Johnson owed a great deal to the unpopularity of the British Labour Government. With Tony Blair and George Brown now consigned to the lucrative public speaking sidelines and Prime Minister David Cameron suffering from dismal economic prospects I would expect things to be different this time.

I admit that so far there is no evidence from the opinion polls that there will be a Livingstone revival. Johnson had a winning margin of nearly six percentage points and the latest polls back in November had him doing slightly better than that. But I did find this piece from The Guardian suggesting that my hunch might prove correct and that Livingstone's price of $3.85 on Betfair is over the odds.

Ken Livingstone has a vision for a capitalist metropolis. And Boris? | Politics | guardian.co.uk:

"It's still early days, of course, and official campaigning has yet to begin. Yet any clear sense of what a second Boris Johnson mayoral term would seek to achieve remains striking by its absence. Ken Livingstone's camp might claim that this reflects the success of its Fare Deal campaign in putting the Boris operation on the back foot, but the dearth of all but the faintest outlines of policy proposals for four more years of Tory mayoralty, let alone a driving central theme, raises once again the question of what Mayor Johnson is actually for."

No investment from me as yet but I am watching closely for further evidence.

'via Blog this'

Time Is Running Out To Knock Romney Down

I hope they are right!

 It's All Politics : NPR:

"Once more, the great media consensus was confounded. Saturday night's debate at St. Anselm's College in Manchester, N.H., produced another battle among half a dozen presidential contenders, much like a dozen before it. Front-runner Mitt Romney was neither knocked out nor even knocked down. He was scarcely even knocked around.

Once again, the evening ended with the bruises pretty equally distributed among the contestants. And with the New Hampshire primary bearing down on Tuesday, virtually no time remains for Romney's rivals to bring him down."

'via Blog this'

Betting Romney keeps rolling onwards

I'm keeping on the Mitt Romney bandwagon as the evidence mounts that the Newt Gingrich bubble has well and truly burst and the rather extremist religious views of Rick Santorum begin getting exposed.
Intrade had him as a 70% chance and I took the little that was available ($35 worth).
Then had a modest $41 investment on Romney to win in Florida at 82%.

National GOP Leader Post-New Hampshire Is Good Bet to Win

From Gallup:

National GOP Leader Post-New Hampshire Is Good Bet to Win: " In recent Republican presidential nomination campaigns, the results of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary have often made Republicans nationwide re-evaluate their preferences for the nominee, with the most change occurring in 1980 and 2008. Since 1976 -- the first year in the modern nominating era in which there was a competitive Republican contest -- the leader after New Hampshire has ultimately won the nomination."

'via Blog this'

Santorum: States Should Have The Right To Outlaw Birth Control | ThinkProgress

Surely with views like this the man could not really be any major party's selection!

Rick Santorum reiterated his belief that states should have the right to outlaw contraception during an interview with ABC News yesterday, saying, “The state has a right to do that, I have never questioned that the state has a right to do that. It is not a constitutional right, the state has the right to pass whatever statues they have.”

antorum has long opposed the Supreme Court’s 1965 ruling “that invalidated a Connecticut law banning contraception” and has also pledged to completely defund federal funding for contraception if elected president. As he told CaffeinatedThoughts.com editor Shane Vander Hart in October, “One of the things I will talk about, that no president has talked about before, is I think the dangers of contraception in this country,” the former Pennsylvania senator explained. “It’s not okay. It’s a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be.”

rom - Santorum: States Should Have The Right To Outlaw Birth Control | ThinkProgress:

'via Blog this'

US elections 2012: Mitt Romney braced for tough fight as Right prepares to unite behind Santorum - Telegraph

US elections 2012: Mitt Romney braced for tough fight as Right prepares to unite behind Santorum - Telegraph:

'via Blog this'

Perhaps I will get a bit of value from my Santorum at $27!

Sticking with Mitt

For Crikey's The Stump blog I produce a series of election indicators based on the major prediction markets. As Iowa Republicans gather to give their verdict on Republican presidential candidates the  Indicator illustrates the uncertainty about the likely outcome. While Mitt Romney is favoured with a 43.1% probability,  Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are also rated as significant chances.
There's always a temptation to take a modest profit on the eve of an event but this time I'm letting my investment on Romney ride in the hope that he will finish first as Pau, Santorum and Gingrich divide the anti-Romney forces.